Zone Coverage

Suck for Luck: Is it a good idea?

For the duration of the 2011 season, NFL teams knew who would be the first overall selection in the 2012 Draft. It was unanimous that Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck would be the choice for whichever team ended with the worst record. Luck, who was viewed as the best college quarterback prospect since 4-time league MVP Peyton Manning was drafted in 1999, was always going to be the eventual ‘prize’ for the biggest loser in the NFL. Luck’s talents were so highly valued that during the 2011 season, fans of teams with losing records started to support an idea against all principles of sportsmanship; to lose the remaining games in order to secure that first overall pick, to ‘Suck for Luck’.

Now the 2011 season has concluded and the 2012 draft has run its course, and top pick Andrew Luck is the Indianapolis Colts’ new franchise quarterback, the question can be asked: Would it have made football sense to intentionally lose games to secure the top draft choice? For four years in a row, the first pick in the draft has been a quarterback, with good results – the 2011 1st pick Cam Newton set rookie records in both running and passing, while 2008 1st pick Matthew Stafford last year became one of only four quarterbacks in history to throw for over 5000 yards in a season. The importance of having a franchise quarterback cannot be overlooked, as all the Superbowl champions for the past nine years have had one of the league’s top 10 quarterbacks.

This strategy logically eliminates teams which have already been blessed with franchise quarterbacks, or teams with a winning record. However, in 2011, three teams did not fit these provisos. The Cleveland Browns, Washington Redskins and Miami Dolphins were all respectively within two, three or four losses of the 1st overall pick, based on the tiebreakers the NFL uses to determine draft order. Imagine if the alternative to secure a surefire quarterback was presented to the general manager of each team: To lose a few games in an otherwise throwaway season, or give up a bounty of future draft picks (such as Washington’s trade with St Louis this year, giving up 3 first-round choices for the 2nd overall selection)?

The answer is simple, but there is far more involved in the question. With a run of losses (intended or otherwise) there is a cost of loss of morale amongst the players, coaches and fanbase. The franchise loses attractiveness to key free agents. There is a financial risk as season ticket holders may not renew, and merchandise sales will decline. Throwing games may even cause illegal gambling, or legal implications. One stratagem to disguise the intentional loss of games might be to simply take no action – if a team is performing poorly and no changes are made, no coaches are cut, no players are traded for and no shift in a bad offensive or defensive scheme is undertaken, the team’s fate most likely will be sealed.

One voice crying out against such a practice includes the NFL players themselves. When questioned, Miami Dolphins tight end Anthony Fasano stated his disgust. “It’s sick actually. I can’t even fathom those thoughts of those people that conjure up that stuff.” The sentiment was echoed around the league. “We’re professionals, we don’t go through training camp, minicamp, O.T.A.’s, off-season training, just to tank a year for a college player that’s unproven,” said Indianapolis Colts defensive end Robert Mathis. First overall pick Andrew Luck, the centre of the debate, did not welcome the notion. “I am aware of it… I think it’s stupid. Simply put.”

The competiveness of the NFL players and coaches cannot be questioned. Fans can rely on their teams to always put in maximum effort, because they’re getting paid to do so. Oliver Luck, father of Andrew Luck, does not question the integrity of the players. “I played for five years in the NFL, and I never have seen a player take a play off, because these guys are playing for their livelihoods. And the coaches are coaching for their livelihood.” This is certainly true, as both the general manager and the head coach of the Colts and St Louis Rams both lost their jobs after losing 14 of 16 games in 2011. Nonetheless, the decision to ‘Suck for Luck’ lies not with players and coaches but with general managers and owners.

There are historical precedents for intentionally losing. In his autobiography, former tennis player Andre Agassi admitted to losing an Australian Open semi-final to avoid a likely defeat to Boris Becker in the final. In 1988 the San Francisco 49ers were accused of “laying down like dogs” in their last regular season game (they had already qualified for playoffs) against the Rams in order to keep their rivals, the New York Giants, from reaching the playoffs.

The idea that started with the twitter handle ‘@suckforluck’ became a great point of debate over the 2011 season. The 2012 season might bring up the same argument for USC quarterback Matt Barkley. Players and coaches were abhorred by the concept, while the media speculated if the practice was going on behind the scenes. The theory itself, while repugnant to the ideals of sportsmanship and with high amounts of risk, is a worthy business proposition for the wealthy NFL owners. It’d be a hard task however to convince players like Green Bay Packers’ centre Jeff Saturday. “I ain’t sucking for anybody. That’s the reality of it.”

Thoughts on Second Round Wilson Pick

The Patriots selected Illnois Safety Tavon Wilson with the 48th pick in the 77th NFL Draft, and the general reaction was.. Tavon who? Wilson, who ESPN graded as undrafted, was a surprise pick in the second round. The Patriots’ critics instantly thought it was a huge reach pick, and the Patriots were clutching at straws trying desperately to fulfil their safety need.

This may be the case, but I think there’s more to it than meets the eye. It’s possible that more than one team really liked Wilson, and Belichick knew this, and therefore had to take him - it’s unlikely the Pats would’ve selected a player this high when more value could’ve been achieved by trading down and still being able to grab him. Similar to Bruce Irwin in round one (who was seen immediately as a reach), it came out later via a report that at least 7 other teams had Irwin as a top-15 player.

2012 Zone Coverage Mock Draft Review

Thanks for reading the 2012 Zone Coverage Mock Draft. Just to go over how I did with my mock draft:

Format:
Team - Postion I ‘mocked’ - Pick taken

1. Indianapolis Colts - QB - QB Andrew Luck, Stanford
2. Washington Redskins - QB - QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor
3 (at 4). Minnesota Vikings - T - T Matt Kalil, USC
4 (at 3). Cleveland Browns - WR - RB Trent Richardson, Alabama
5 (at 7). Tampa Bay Buccaneers - CB - S Mark Barron, Alabama
6 (at 14). St Louis Rams - WR - DT Michael Brockers, LSU
7 (at 5). Jacksonville Jaguars - T - WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State
8. Miami Dolphins - RB - QB Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M
9. Carolina Panthers - LB - LB Luke Kuechly, Boston College
10. Buffalo Bills - G - CB Stephon Gilmore, South Carolina
11. Kansas City Chiefs - QB - DT Dontari Poe, Memphis
12 (at 15). Seattle Seahawks - DT - DE Bruce Irwin
13. Arizona Cardinals - DE - WR Michael Floyd, Notre Dame
14 (at 6). Dallas Cowboys - S - CB Morris Claiborne, LSU
15 (at 12). Philadelphia Eagles - LB - DT Fletcher Cox, Mississippi State
16. New York Jets - T - DE Quinton Coples, North Carolina
17. Cincinnati Bengals - CB - CB Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama
18. San Diego Chargers - LB - LB Melvin Ingram, South Carolina
19. Chicago Bears - C - LB Shea McClellin, Boise State
20. Tennessee Titans - LB - WR Kendall Wright, Baylor
21. Cincinnati Bengals - WR - G Kevin Zeitler, Wisconsin
22. Cleveland Browns - QB - QB Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State
23. Detroit Lions - CB - T Riley Reiff, Iowa
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - DE - G David DeCastro, Stanford
25. Denver Broncos - Did not select (Buccaneers took RB Doug Martin, Boise State at 31)
26. Houston Texans - G  - DE Whitney Mercilus, Illnois
27 (at 21). New England Patriots - DE - DE Chandler Jones, Syracuse
28. Green Bay Packers - DT - DE Nick Perry, USC
29. Baltimore Ravens - WR - Did not select (Vikings took S Harrison Smith, Notre Dame)
30. San Francisco 49ers - RB - WR A.J. Jenkins, Illnois
31 (at 25). New England Patriots - S - LB Dont’a Hightower, Alabama
32. New York Giants - RB - RB David Wilson, Virginia Tech

I (with Mayock’s help, assuredly) hit on a total of 6 picks, and picked the correct need taken (by that I mean I said they would take a defensive back, and they did, even if not necessarily the same player) for a total of 13 teams (out of 27, because Baltimore, Denver, Oakland, Atlanta and New Orleans didn’t make any picks this round). Thanks for reading!

2012 Zone Coverage Mock Draft

Thanks for reading the 2012 Zone Coverage Mock Draft.

As I’ve done absolutely no film review of any of the prospective draft picks, this mock draft will more be a review of positional need for each of the teams than a specific pick of a particular player. Player’s are chosen from a reputable source - Mike Mayock’s top 5 position rankings (available here) and his top 100 prospect rankings (available here). Each player chosen is my opinion of the team’s greatest need, and then the selection is the highest-rated available player at that position. Where I consider the team has multiple great needs, the selection is the highest available prospect at the relevant positions of need.

1. Indianapolis Colts - QB Andrew Luck, Stanford
2. Washington Redskins - QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor
3. Minnesota Vikings - T Matt Kalil, USC
4. Cleveland Browns - WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - CB Morris Claiborne, LSU
6. St Louis Rams - WR Michael Floyd, Notre Dame
7. Jacksonville Jaguars - T Riley Reiff, Iowa
8. Miami Dolphins - RB Trent Richardson, Alabama
9. Carolina Panthers - LB Luke Kuechly, Boston College
10. Buffalo Bills - G David DeCastro, Stanford
11. Kansas City Chiefs - QB Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M
12. Seattle Seahawks - DT Fletcher Cox, Mississippi State
13. Arizona Cardinals - DE Chandler Jones, Syracuse
14. Dallas Cowboys - S Mark Barron, Alabama
15. Philadelphia Eagles - LB Dont’a Hightower, Alabama
16. New York Jets - T Cordy GLenn, Georgia
17. Cincinnati Bengals - CB Stephon Gilmore, South Carolina
18. San Diego Chargers - LB Shea McClellin, Boise State
19. Chicago Bears - C Peter Konz, Wisconsin
20. Tennessee Titans - LB Melvin Ingram, South Carolina
21. Cincinnati Bengals - WR Kendall Wright, Baylor
22. Cleveland Browns - QB Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State
23. Detroit Lions - CB Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - DE Quinton Coples, North Carolina
25. Denver Broncos - TE Coby Fleener, Stanford
26. Houston Texans - G Kevin Zeitler, Wisconsin
27. New England Patriots - DE Courtney Upshaw, Alabama
28. Green Bay Packers - DT Dontari Poe, Memphis
29. Baltimore Ravens - WR Stephen Hill, Georgia Tech
30. San Francisco 49ers - RB Doug Martin, Boise State
31. New England Patriots - S Harrison Smith, Notre Dame
32. New York Giants - RB David Wilson, Virginia Tech

Of course, this mock draft doesn’t account for draft-day trades, and is only my opinion of the needs of all the teams, and the player evaluations are based solely on Mike Mayock’s.

Notable players who weren’t drafted in my mock were DT Jerel Worthy, DT Michael Brockers, DE Vinny Curry, OT Jonathan Martin, OT Jeff Allen, CB Janoris Jenkins, G Amini Silatolu and CB Casey Hayward.

Thanks for reading, let me know your thoughts/criticisms!

Pats fans want coach to break tradition and draft high

The 2012 NFL Draft in New York is less than ten days away, and the cries of New England Patriots’ fans worldwide is for head coach Bill Belichick to abstain from his regular practice of trading down in the draft, and to use the Patriots’ selections at their current high positions. During Belichick’s 12-year tenure, draft-day trades have featured a majority (72%) of trading down or into future drafts, with only 4 trade-ups have been made in the last three years, compared to 13 trade-downs.

The Patriots currently have a total of 6 selections, including 4 in the first two rounds, and are seemingly in a good position to use these picks to select an impact player, such as S Mark Barron or DE Whitney Mercilus. Patriots’ Director of Player Personnel Nick Caserio spoke at the NFL Combine last month, hinting that the Patriot’s may like certain aspects of this draft class, “Receiver, offensive line, the front seven are all positions of strength.” Remarks such as these give Patriots draft observers reason to believe the organisation may use both of its’ first round picks for the first time since 2004 (one possible reason why could be that less than half of the Patriots first round picks in the last decade are still on the roster).

The 77^th Annual NFL Draft will begin on April 26^th, and Patriots fans will be following closely, hoping Coach Belichick is cured of his reluctance to do what has only been done twice before in the Belichick Era – move up in the first round.

ESPN: Patriots Report Card

A nifty little poll that’ll let you put your own thoughts on the Patriots players for the 2011 season - I figure most players would have to get a B, since after all, we did make the Superbowl where 30 other teams didn’t.

Click here to grade the players at ESPN.

2011 Defense: Best the Patriots Have Ever Brought to a Superbowl?‏

At the beginning of the 2011 season, Patriots fans were quietly optimistic about a renewed defense, augmented with free agent defensive linemen, some new and some newly healthy defensive backs, and a knowledge that Bill Belichick was changing the defense to a more 4-3 look, with the hope that the defense would be much more stalwart than in 2009 or 2010. However, absent a good performance against the Buccaneers in a preseason game, fans saw a defense no more tight or play-making than years previous. Throughout the regular season, although the Patriots continued to pile up wins, critics mentioned these were in spite of the defense, not aided by it.

The regular season statistics were against the defense, who ranked 31st in yards allowed (and were mostly 32nd for the year), as well as being poor at 3rd down stops, and stopping big plays downfield. However, there were a few bright spots, namely being tough in the red-zone, picking up some key turnovers (CB Kyle Arrington tied for the league lead in interceptions) and ranking mid-league in points allowed (which, some referred to, was the key stat, after all, points not yards determine wins).

Coach Bill Belichick was constantly questioned and queried about his defensive personnel choices, which were perhaps not misguided, when career special-teamer Matthew Slater played almost a full game at safety, and ex-quarterback turned wide receiver was used primarily in games as a slot defensive back (noted by many as the toughest spot in the NFL to play). Some of these moves were indeed ‘misses’, as were a number of free agent and previous draft choices (i.e. Albert Haynesworth and Taylor Price [one could say Ras-I Dowling or Shane Vereen were draft misses, although its too early to determine the value of the pick]).

However, all this negative criticism and poor statistical feedback had seemly no effect on the mental attitude of the defense - no quote could be found from a Patriot complaining of the lack of quality depth or making excuses for poor play, the team were consistent in beleiving with a bit more hard work and continued application of the defensive gameplan, it would all come together and the Patriots would have a solid if not respectable defense. And, in the end, it did come together. Right in time for the playoffs.

Statistically, the Patriots finished the regular season with a points-allowed-per-game ranking of 15th in the league, and a yards-allowed-per-game ranking of 31st (the two statistics which one can point to as the best measure of a teams’ defense). Through two playoff games, the Patriots have allowed 15 points per game, and 325 total yards per game. If these averages were compared against the regular season results, the Patriots would be 9th in the league in yards-allowed (up from 31st), and 3rd in the league in points-allowed (yes, the Patriots have a top 3 defense.). Justification for the comparison of such a
small sample size (2 games) to the regular season (16 games) is that the Patriots have obviously played two good teams in the playoffs, both by the nature that the teams made the playoffs by winning their division, and also that both these teams had some good offenses (the Broncos had the number 1 rushing offense in the league, and the Ravens had the 10th ranked rushing offense, so they aren’t slouches).

Despite these favourable comparisons, a team that has maybe had two strong defensive games may not necessarily be well regarded as a whole - so a more accurate comparison would be to look at the 2011 Patriots compared to the postseason statistics of every other Patriots team that has played in the Superbowl. Most fans remember Tedy Bruschi, Rodney Harrison, Richard Seymour, Ty Law - these guys have won Superbowl rings in New England, and are synonymous with good, tough, playoff-caliber defense. By looking at the yards-allowed and points-allowed statistics of the Patriots 6 previous Superbowl teams, perhaps the quality of the current defense can be determined.

The defenses in questionable are obviously the losing Superbowl teams from 1985, ‘96 and ‘07. The three winning teams are from 2001, ‘03, and ‘04. Studying the main defensive statistic, yards-allowed-per-game, the 2011 postseason Patriots lie somewhere around the middle, giving up less yards than the ‘07 or ‘04, exactly the same amount as the ‘03 team, and slightly more than the other Patriots Superbowl teams (the ‘96 team is the strongest in this category).

The real interesting statistic, however, is points-allowed-per-game in the postseason. With one more game to be played, the 2011 Patriots have given up less points than any previous Patriots Superbowl team (with the exception of the ‘96 Pats, who gave up the same amount of points). Should the Pats keep the Giants to just two touchdowns, we’ll have seen the greatest defense the Patriots have ever put out to play defense in the postseason. And that defense includes players like Sergio Brown, Nate Jones, Julian Edelman, Gerard Warren, and Dane Fletcher. None of those guys are headed for Canton. One Patriot who will be is Coach Bill Belichick, who, if he pulls this off, will arguably be the greatest defensive mind in the history of the game, and he almost gave himself nothing to work with.

Second Half Thoughts

By clamping down on the run and forcing Flacco to beat them with the arm, the Patriots have unearthed another threat - Flacco beating them with his feet. This might led the Pats to take a man out of coverage to go to a spy position.

Potentially a big injury to Gronkowski, but the Pats were able to move the ball down the field regardless of his injury, although Gronkowski later came in on a goal line situation for the touchdown. Interesting to see if he’ll still run pass patterns on a questionable ankle.

Some patterns run by the Patriots receivers seem to end up with multiple receivers in the same area. This could be a factor of the Pats trying to be overcomplicated with route combinations to try and unlock this Ravens defense. (submission from reader Steve)

Great timely interception by Brandon Spikes, doing a terrific job of making a one-handed catch, and then getting a nice return. It seemed like a big momentum shift for the Pats, but then got too greedy with the attempted deep ball to Slater.

The phrase ‘great players make big plays in big games’ has to apply in this game to Vince Wilfork, who’s been a huge playmaker in this game, showing up in critical moments with QB pressures and run stops.

See you all in SUPERBOWL 46!

Second Quarter Thoughts

With the Ravens selling out on the run to stop the pass, the Pats scored the first td of the game behind Benjarvus Green-Ellis, who is looking strong and tough.

Good comeback from the Ravens offense, hitting a couple big pass plays. The Patriots look to be trying to make Joe Flacco beat them with his arm, which he might do if they aren’t careful.

On the Patriots quick no-huddle drive, sure looked to me like Gronkowski got two feet down for a first down, but Belichick decided not to challenge and took the three points.

Less than 10 minutes to the big game!

Let’s get it done Pats!!