A list of the Patriots regular season receiving totals:
Wes Welker: 1,569 yards (9 TDs)
Rob Gronkowski: 1,327 yards (17 TDs)
Aaron Hernandez: 910 yards (7 TDs)
Deion Branch: 702 yards (5 TDs)
Chad Ochocinco: 276 yards (1 TD)
Benjarvus Green-Ellis: 159 yards (0 TDs)
Danny Woodhead: 157 yards (0 TDs)
Matthew Slater: 46 yards (0 TDs)
Julian Edelman: 34 yards (0 TDs)
Kevin Faulk: 34 yards (0 TDs)
Tiquan Underwood: 30 yards (0 TDs)
Stevan Ridley: 13 yards (0 TDs)
TOTAL: 5,257 yards (39 TDs)
A list of the Patriots regular season rushing totals:
Benjarvus Green-Ellis: 667 yards (avg 3.7)
Stevan Ridley: 441 yards (avg 5.1)
Danny Woodhead: 351 yards (avg 4.6)
Tom Brady: 109 yards (avg 2.5)
Shane Vereen: 57 yards (avg 3.8)
Kevin Faulk: 57 yards (avg 3.4)
Aaron Hernandez: 45 yards (avg 9.0)
Wes Welker: 30 yards (avg 7.5)
Julian Edelman: 8 yards (avg 2.0)
Rob Gronkowski: 2 yards (avg 2.0)
Brian Hoyer: -3 yards (avg -0.8)
TOTAL: 1,764 yards
On PFT Live today, Tom Curran from CSNNE talked about how the Patriots offense could be slowed: “Hit Gronkowski, hit Welker, hit Hernandez.” Curran stressed that keying on these Pats offensive weapons, together with getting quick pressure on Brady is the key. To break it down further, the game will become a series of line matchups, to see if “can Suggs beat Nate Solder, can Ngata beat Dan Connolly before Wes Welker comes out of his break.”
PFT Live host Mike Florio also commented on how if the Pats win this new-school offense vs old-school defense game, another similar challenge will be waiting in the Superbowl against a strong defensive team in the Giants or 49ers. Therefore, one of the most important storylines for the Pats playoff hopes is the health of the offensive line, which has used 9 different players over the course of the season.
5 points from the Wildcard game between Broncos-Steelers the Patriots should key on:
1. 3 man rush - Once the Broncos had a lead, they repeatedly sent 3 linemen against 6 blockers of the Steelers, and Ben Roethlisberger was not able to find gaps in their zone defense. Hopefully they try the same against Tom Brady and zone-killers Wes Welker and Deion Branch.
2. Man coverage - The Steelers played alot of close man coverage, which left them vulnerable to the deep ball. This is evident on the game-winning touchdown, when the Steelers had 9 players in the box. I don’t think I’ve seen a play this year within the 20’s where the Patriots haven’t had a safety at least 15 yards deep, so you can figure the Patriots have an advantage with taking away the deep ball.
3. Lack of contain - A few times the over-aggressive Steeler run defense pursued a RB into the middle of the line, only to see Tim Tebow keep the ball and pick up a first down or two. The Pats defense has better discipline on the edge (at least, ignoring the first quarter from the earlier Broncos game).
4. Fumbles continue - the Patriots benefited from a couple of fumbles in the earlier matchup, and when Willis McGahee fumbled against the Steelers, the same problem emerged. McGahee also had another fumble which was recovered by Denver, and only had a long of 11 and an average of 3.2, and so maybe the top rush attack from the regular season is not so dangerous in the postseason.
5. Slow play recognition - I noticed the Broncos defense were quite slow in recognising the Steelers offensive formations pre-snap. On one play, the Steelers had 4 wide receivers to one side in a diamond formation, while the Broncos had only two defensive backs matched on them. The play resulted in a predictable (for everyone but the Broncos defense) wide-receiver screen for positive yards. On account of Roethlisberger’s foot injury, the Steelers could not run much play-action in this game. Look for the Pats to make full use of some tricky formations and play-action next week.
A few observation from the Patriots last regular season game:
- As mentioned in some of Bill Belichick’s conferences before the game, teams with nothing playoff-wise to play for call much riskier plays than they would otherwise. This was evidenced in the first quarter with the Bills going for a fake punt on the very first possession, and going for it on 4th and 4 in the first quarter.
- The Patriots defense had a lot of problems with the Bills spread 5-wide offense in the first quarter. This was especially between LB Dane Fletcher, who was beaten on man coverage a number of times in the Bills’ third drive, including a TD pass to RB CJ Spiller. The spread offense wasn’t as successful later on when the Bills were forced into some longer third downs.
- Good to see the Patriots coming up with 4 interceptions (and 1 called back) in this game, giving some of the Patriots secondary some much-needed confidence coming into the playoffs.
- There were four dropped passes in this game by the Patriots, three by Wes Welker, and one by Rob Gronkowski. It has to be noted that these guys, plus Aaron Hernandez, had the lion’s share of targets in the game.
A few observations from the TV copy:
- Although its difficult to assess special teams play on the TV copy, what is obvious on kickoff coverage is that WR/S Matthew Slater or WR/DB Julian Edelman are always the first guys to get down the field near the turner. It’s not suprising Slater leads the team in special teams tackles.
- The Patriots return of a botched extra-point can be taken two ways - one, that the Patriots are coached in such a way that they go hard on every play, regardless of value, or two, that Sergio Brown and Kyle Arrington don’t know that an extra point can’t result in a score for the defensive team in the NFL.
- On the Patriots first goal-line play, the Broncos ran a defensive line “hard-count” shift, similar to what the Patriots have done successfully over the past few weeks. The Patriots did not commit a false start penalty, but the shift could’ve been something the Denver coaching staff has picked up from their Patriots film study.
- One comment by Phil Simms got me thinking about WR Chad Ochocinco’s lack of catches - he mentioned that the Patriots use the screen game to everyone, receivers, tight ends and backs, but I can’t think of any screens to Ochocinco. If the Patriots or QB Tom Brady were aiming to get Ocho involved early by giving him a few catches, what better way then the screen game? Obviously, the Patriots view their tight ends and Welker as higher priorities in the screen game then Ochocinco (or Ocho is such a good blocker that they always want him blocking outside).
A few observations from watching the TV copy of the game:
- The Patriots again used the hardcount shift on defense at the goal line, and again it worked to draw a false start penalty. It seems like a useful tool at the goalline or in short yardage situations which has resulted in a high amount of false starts. The drive resulted in a field goal.
- LB Dane Fletcher had a good first half, drawing a holding penalty and being influential on a key goal-line stop. Fletcher seemed to tire into the second half.
- Three red zone stands by the Redskins in this game, which is uncharacteristic for the Pats to not come up with the TD (who have a high red zone efficiency).
- When S James Ihedigbo was injured early in the third quarter, it looked like S Sergio Brown ran on to the field, whether he thought he was next in the safety rotation or was just keen to get onto the field. However, before the next snap, he was replaced by S Matthew Slater, showing the coaching staff’s hesitance to use Brown except on special teams.
- More of a theory than an observation, but perhaps a part of the argument between QB Tom Brady and OC Billy O’Brien stems from the fact Brady ‘likes’ Tiquan Underwood, and O’Brien was thought to ‘like’ Taylor Price, and O’Brien may’ve been pointing out that Price wouldn’t have made a better play on the ball than Underwood did on the interception. Earlier in the year it was observed Price was not invited when Brady worked out in the offseason with his receivers, and O’Brien mentioned during the season how he wanted to get Price more involved.
- The Patriots had three dropped passes in the game, from Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker. There were also plenty of incomplete passes due to wrong routes or bad reads.
A snapshot of where some of the Patriots offensive players are at statistically, with reference to the rest of the league:
- Wes Welker is first in the league with 1,143 yards.
- Wes Welker is also first in the league with 82 receptions (second is Jimmy Graham, with 67).
- Wes is third in the league for targets, with 107 (Roddy White is the leader with 113).
- Rob Gronkowski is the best Patriot for average yards per catch, tied for 36th in the league with 14.4.
- Gronk is second in the league for touchdowns with 11 (Wes is equal fourth, with 8).
- Wes Welker has the longest reception in the league this season, with a 99-yard play.
- Wes Welker is second in the league for Yards after Catch, with 468 (first is Fred Jackson).
- Wes Welker is second in the league for big plays (20+ yards) with 18.
More thoughts from the TV copy:
- LB Tracy White seems to be the kind of player who always plays to the whistle seeking out turnover opportunities. Three times in this game I saw him pick up an incomplete pass and run back with it before the whistle called the play over. That sort of determination and awareness could be key whenever an offense makes a mistake in fumbling the ball.
- A lot of media talk recently has been about defensive players making a hard hit on a receiver coming across the middle and then being flagged for it (like Ravens S Bernard Pollard a few weeks ago, and Saints DB Isa Abdul-Quddus on Monday Night), however, CB Kyle Arrington made a hit in the third quarter on WR Jason Avant across the middle which dislodged the ball and wasn’t flagged - a good hit where Arrington kept his helmet low and on the ball, and followed through with the shoulder. Perhaps more of the flags in question were actually good calls on questionable hits, and it is possible to make an effective, legal hit.
- A few snaps late in the fourth quarter where both WR Tiquan Underwood and WR Matthew Slater were on the field for running plays, executing blocking assignments. Apart from the fact it gives WR Wes Welker and WR Deion Branch a breather, how wide receivers can runblock in this offense is critical and a few game snaps gives the Patriots coaches valuable tape to evaluate the skills of the lesser-used receivers.
- I charted 4 dropped passes by Patriots receivers throughout the game. This makes a total of 15 drops over the last 4 games.
A few observations from watching the TV copy:
- 3 good punt returners in this game, with Jeremy Horne, Javier Arenas and Julian Edelman. All had an average return of over 18 yards (league around 11 yards).
- Nice tackle by S Sterling Moore on RB Thomas Jones, saving a touchdown with 4.15 to go in the fourth quarter. Moore didn’t go for the big hit (and possibly whiff), but came towards Jones steadily and took his legs out, coming from the opposite side of the field.
- On the second sack of QB Tom Brady, WR Wes Welker looked open down the middle of the field if the pass rush held up one more second. TE Rob Gronkowski had cleared out the middle and Welker had got a step on the two men in coverage, and was open about 15 yards downfield, but Brady was swallowed up for a sack.
- On a unrelated note, QB Tyler Palko seemed to hate being on the field for longer than possible, or just being in one place at the same time - every shot of him was running somewhere, or moving around on the bench.
- Good game by LB Niko Koutouvides for the Patriots, making two special teams tackles and making a key block on PR Julian Edelman’s punt return touchdown. Koutouvides also recovered a fumble last week against the Jets, and has likely solified his place on the roster (after being cut in the preseason).
- On CB Antwaun Molden’s dropped interception chance in the fourth quarter, it looked like he took his eyes off the ball and therefore couldn’t secure the ball. I’m not sure if it would’ve counted anyway, as it looked like he had stepped out and hadn’t re-established in bounds.
- RB Shane Vereen’s 19 yard run late in the fourth quarter was amazingly the equal second longest Patriots run this season (tied with WR Wes Welker). The longest run was RB Stevan Ridley for 33 yards.
- I noted only 3 dropped passes in this game for the Patriots. I didn’t count an incompletion to Rob Gronkowski where the ball hit his hand, but his arm was fully outstretched behind him.
