Zone Coverage

2013/14 NFC West Division Preview & Prediction

The fourth in a series of eight division previews, recapping the 2012 season, the offseason, and the storylines to watch in 2013. Next week: AFC!

Previously covered divisions: NFC East, NFC North, NFC South.

2012 Regular Season Standings:

• San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)
• Seattle Seahawks (11-5)
• St. Louis Rams (7-8-1)
• Arizona Cardinals (5-11)

Offseason Review

San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers’ offseason involved a number of trades, including moving former first overall pick Alex Smith to the Chiefs for a second round pick, and trading for receiver Anquan Boldin from Baltimore. The team also added corner Nnamdi Asomugha in free agency, but have lost some significant starters in Delanie Walker, Dashon Goldson, Ted Ginn and Isaac Sopoaga. Recently they also lost receiver Michael Crabtree to an Achilles tear, he had a big impact late in the season for the 49ers, they’ll hope he can return towards the end of 2013.

In the draft, the 49ers moved up in the first round to get safety Eric Reid (to replace Dashon Goldson), and in a value pick, also got Marcus Lattimore in the fourth (who would’ve been much higher if not for a horrible college knee injury).

Seattle Seahawks – There must be some kind of fad in trading your backup quarterback to the AFC West. Matt Flynn was sent to the Raiders in return for a fifth as Russell Wilson is the clear starter in Seattle. The Hawks also pulled off a big trade for the dynamic Percy Harvin.

They lost their first round pick in the trade, but still made 11 selections in the draft, including Australian Jesse Williams in the fifth. Their free agent period is an example of the rich getting richer – the team added corner Antoine Winfield, as well as defensive linemen Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett without significant losses.

St. Louis Rams – The Rams were active in the NFL draft, getting the most explosive player, receiver Tavon Austin, and also trading back into the first round to select linebacker Alec Ogletree – two players who should develop into long term starters for the Rams.

A couple of seasoned veterans moved on in free agency – wide receiver Danny Amendola to the Pats, and Steven Jackson to the Falcons. The team also added talented tight end Jared Cook from the Titans.

Arizona Cardinals – There’s been a firesale of the Cards’ roster – out is Kevin Kolb, Kerry Rhodes, Adrian Wilson, Beanie Wells, William Gay and John Skelton. The additional of Carson Palmer for a conditional seventh round pick as well as Javier Arenas, Jerraud Powers, Rashard Mendenhall and Jasper Brinkley may help their 2013 campaign to some degree, but they’re not viewed as impact signings.

One of the few brights spots from last year, linebacker Darryl Washington, has been suspended for four games, and perhaps in response Arizona drafted Kevin Minter in the second round to help fill the hole. The Cards also selected Tyrann Mathieu (aka, the Honey Badger) in the third, who had drug troubles in college. A good match for Mathieu, who is now with his close friend Patrick Peterson in Arizona.

2013 Storyline

San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers are in an interesting position, losers of the Super Bowl typically have a poor season following the loss, but the 49ers have one of the strongest rosters in the league, and quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who’s only started ten games, is the hottest commodity in the NFL.

They’ve had some roster turnover, but there’s no denying that the 49ers are definitely in the mix to represent the NFC again, and perhaps do one better. It’s tough to identify a weak spot anywhere on their roster.

Seattle Seahawks – Russell Wilson was the biggest steal of the 2012 draft, with the Hawks selecting him in the third round and getting probably the value of a third overall pick. By all accounts, Wilson is working hard in the offseason to again take his team to the playoffs, and despite being in the toughest division in the NFL, he has a good chance to succeed.

Seattle has a strong defense and now with Percy Harvin, their offence could become unstoppable. The 12th man in Seattle helped them to an 8-0 home record in 2012 – maybe they’ll go undefeated all season in 2013?

St. Louis Rams – Despite finishing third in 2012, the Rams actually had the best in-division record. There’s certainly talent on the Rams’ roster, and despite losing some major offensive players the addition of Austin to the offence could elevate them to the next level.

There’s a general view of the Rams as a bad team, but they showed in 2012 they can scrap with the best and they might surprise with a playoff push in 2013.

Arizona Cardinals – Larry Fitzgerald described the 2012 season as his most disappointing season ever. I don’t think 2013 will be a walk in the park either. One positive to cling to is that their new coach, Bruce Arians, helped to turn around a horrible Colts team to make the playoffs the 2012.

Carson Palmer is not going to be the next Kurt Warner, but surely he’s an upgrade over the Skelton/Kolb mess. On the bright side, there’s going to be some good quarterbacks available at the top of the 2014 draft.

Predicted 2013 Standings

• Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
• San Francisco 49ers (11-5)
• St. Louis Rams (9-7)
• Arizona Cardinals (3-13)

2013/14 NFC South Division Preview & Prediction

The third in a series of eight division previews, recapping the 2012 season, the offseason, and the storylines to watch in 2013.

Previously covered divisions: NFC East, NFC North.

2012 Regular Season Standings

• Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
• Carolina Panthers (7-9)
• New Orleans Saints (7-9)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)

Offseason Review

Atlanta Falcons – Despite their best season in years, there were still big changes in Atlanta in the offseason. They let go of pass rusher John Abraham, and lost starting corners Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson. They signed Osi Umenyiora from the Giants, and in one of my favourite signings of the offseason upgraded their running back to Steven Jackson. They therefore needed a corner, and took two with their first two picks in the draft, grabbing Desmond Trufant (who has NFL pedigree, with two brothers in the league already) and Robert Alford.

Carolina Panthers – Steve Smith isn’t getting any younger, and Carolina turned over the wide receiver position around him, letting Louis Murphy depart and bringing in Ted Ginn and Domenik Hixon. The team also added Chase Blackburn at linebacker and resigned their priority free agent, corner/returner Captain Munnerlyn. In the draft, the Panthers addressed their run defence as they doubled down on defensive tackles, getting Star Lotulelei in the first and Kawann Short in the second.

New Orleans Saints - Bountygate is now over, with the last penalty being the Saints’ second round pick in the 2013 draft. With their first pick they selected safety Kenny Vaccaro, in an attempt to shore up the second-worst pass defense in the league. There isn’t much to speak about for the Saint’s free agent period – resigning centre Brian de la Puente was their best move, while they also traded back Chris Ivory to the Jets (perhaps opening more opportunities for Heisman winner Mark Ingram).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The biggest offseason move in the NFL so far in 2013 was the Bucs trading their first pick in the draft for ex-Jet Darrelle Revis, a good move in any year but especially commendable with the perceived weak draft class in 2013. They also added to the secondary with corner Johnthan Banks in the second round and grabbed quarterback Mike Glennon in the third, which may cause some concern for starter Josh Freeman. There was a lot of movement in free agency for Tampa, losing Michael Bennett (to Seattle), Ronde Barber (retired) and EJ Biggers (to Washington) but gaining safety Dashon Goldson, receiver Kevin Ogletree and corner Darrelle Revis. He’s worth mentioning twice.

2013 Storyline

Atlanta Falcons – After putting all their eggs into the 2012 basket, and coming up short, the Falcons are resetting for another year. Enticing tight end Tony Gonzalez back for one more year says a lot about the strength of their roster and their overall chance to make the Super Bowl. The Falcons are a clear powerhouse team, in one of the weaker divisions in the NFL, and are strong favourites to make the playoffs. The central problem with the Falcons is their penchant for not performing in the playoffs, so it’s unlikely we’ll see a true test for the Falcons until January.

Carolina Panthers – The Panthers were terrible at the start of the 2012 season, and Cam Newton’s performance slumped after a great rookie season. The team picked up towards the end of the season, putting together enough wins to tie for second in the division  but the larger problem remained – there wasn’t enough offensive weapons for Newton to play with. After the success of Kaepernick, RGIII and Wilson in 2012, defenses will be keying in on mobile quarterbacks and Carolina will need more than Newton to get them wins in 2013.

New Orleans Saints – The Saints biggest addition for the 2013 season will be head coach Sean Payton, back from a one-season suspension for his involvement in a bounty program. The loss of Payton clearly affected the team in 2012 – although Drew Brees had his customary million yards, the defence struggled in the passing game and star tight end Jimmy Graham had a very quiet season. An appraisal of the Saints roster comes to the same conclusion as 2012 — the offensive line is so-so, and the defense has a lot of holes — it’s looking like a very steep uphill climb for the Saints to make the playoffs in 2013.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – I’m expecting big things from the Bucs this year. They’ve got the playmakers on offense (Vincent Jackson, Doug Martin) and now they’ve got the talent on defence (Darrelle Revis, Gerald McCoy) to be a factor in the NFC playoff race. It all comes down to the performance of quarterback Josh Freeman, who’s been a mixed bag so far in his NFL season, impressing on occasion but not displaying consistency over the course of a season. If Freeman struggles early, bank on coach Greg Schiano to pull the plug and get rookie Mike Glennon on the field before the bye week.

Predicted 2013 Standings

• Atlanta Falcons (12-4)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6)
• New Orleans Saints (8-8)
• Carolina Panthers (5-11)

NFC North Preview

The second in a series of eight division previews, recapping the 2012 season, the offseason, and the storylines to watch in 2013.

2012 Regular Season Standings

• Green Bay Packers (11-5)
• Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
• Chicago Bears (10-6)
• Detroit Lions (4-12)

Offseason Review

Green Bay Packers - The Packers had two glaring needs at the end of the 2012 season: a decent runningback to take the pressure off Aaron Rodgers, and a defensive end to play ying to Clay Matthews’ yang. They addressed these issues with the first two picks of the draft, selecting Datone Jones at end, and the best running back in the draft: Eddie Lacy. The Packers let veterans Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and Charles Woodson walk away, preferring to go with younger options like Randall Cobb and Casey Hayward.

Minnesota Vikings -  The offseason didn’t start particularly well for Vikings fans – dynamic wide receiver Percy Harvin was traded to Seattle. But don’t be fooled that the Vikings were giving up as a rebuilding season. The Vikings grabbed top defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd, top wide receiver Cordarelle Patterson and a solid corner, Xavier Rhodes, all in the first round - the first time a team has taken three first round picks since 2001. The free agent market has yielded mixed results for Minnesota; losing corner Antoine Winfield and receiver Michael Jenkins, but gaining quarterback Matt Cassel and receiver Greg Jennings.

Chicago Bears - The offseason in the Windy City started with the release of veteran linebacker Brian Urlacher, which created speculation that the team would target Manti T’eo in the draft. However, the team went a different way, going with linebacker Jon Bostic in the second round, and picking guard Kyle Long (brother of Ram Chris Long, and son of Hall of Famer Howie Long) in the first. In free agency Chicago upgraded at tight end, signing Martellus Bennett away from the Giants and letting Kellen Davis move on.

Detroit Lions – For a team to play twice a year against the patchwork offensive lines of Green Bay and Chicago and still finish in the lower half of the league in sacks is pretty disappointing. The Lions must have felt the same, as they took boom-or-bust defensive end Ziggy Ansah with the fifth overall choice. Detroit lost both their starting tackles this offseason, with Jeff Backus retiring and Gosder Cherilus signing with the Colts, and their offensive line depth could develop into a problem for them in 2013. As for good news, ex-Dolphins running back Reggie Bush has signed with the team, a major improvement for a team thats struggled at the position in recent years.

2013 Storyline

Green Bay Packers – The main issue for the Packers is consistency. There isn’t any doubt they’re talented, they nearly went undefeated in 2011. Yet the injury bug has struck in recent years and tested their depth. If newly-minted quarterback Aaron Rodgers can get decent support from the offensive line and running back, they’d be my pick for the NFC Super Bowl representative.

Minnesota Vikings – There’s a lot of fresh faces in Minnesota, and a lot of hope brewing around their unexpectedly good performance in 2012. Runningback Adrian Peterson, who was just nine yards short of Eric Dickerson’s record for rushing yards in a season (2,105), is aiming for a modest total of 2,500 yards in 2013. Records aside, the destiny of the Vikings 2013 depends on the performance of third-year quarterback Christian Ponder. If Ponder can develop into a reliable NFL starter, Minnesota fans will have more than just a playoff berth to celebrate.

Chicago Bears – The Bears have Mark Trestman as a new head coach in 2013, despite posting a winning season in 2012 and barely missing out on the playoffs. There’s a high bar in Chicago, and that goes for quarterback Jay Cutler too – he’s not well-liked by the local populace, and if he isn’t successful, this is likely his last season with the Bears. Short of winning the Super Bowl, Cutler might be ousted anyway.

Detroit Lions – If there was a prize for dirtiest team in the NFL, the Lions would have won it in 2012, thanks to defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. The Lions are supremely talented, and can boast the best wide receiver in the game (Calvin Johnson), but there is a lack of discipline with the Lions that can be seen on the field. If the Lions can somehow turn around their locker-room culture, there is some hope, but I think it’s more likely we see the number of arrests and suspensions outweigh the number of wins in 2013.

Predicted 2013 Standings

• Green Bay Packers (12-4)
• Minnesota Vikings (9-7)
• Chicago Bears (8-8)
• Detroit Lions (6-10)

2013/14 NFC East Division Preview & Prediction

The first in a series of eight division previews, recapping the 2012 season, the offseason, and the storylines to watch in 2013.

2012 Regular Season Standings

• Washington Redskins (10-6)
• New York Giants (9-7)
• Dallas Cowboys (8-8)
• Philadelphia Eagles (4-12)

Offseason Review

Dallas Cowboys – In free agency, Dallas was fairly reserved, resigning linebacker Anthony Spencer and giving Tony Romo a six-year extension. Former first round pick Felix Jones was let go as DeMarco Murray has emerged as the long-term starter at runningback. In the 2013 Draft,  Dallas made a questionable pick in the first round with center Travis Frederick, also a strong case can be made that they definitely needed the interior line help. Second round selection at tight end, Gavin Escobar, will help them in the passing game.

New York Giants – The Giants made a solid first round pick in the draft, choosing tackle Justin Pugh to upgrade their aging O-line. They also took Ryan Nassib in the fourth – who they’ll hope to develop into a capable backup and trade bait in a few years. The Giants have seen a significant turnover at linebacker, with both Michael Boley and Chase Blackburn departing in free agency. Dan Connor, former Cowboy, is the replacement. The team has also signed former Eagle Cullen Jenkins to replace the loss of end Osi Umenyiora.

Philadelphia Eagles - The Eagles lost starting tackle King Dunlap in free agency, and filled the need by selecting the most athletic tackle in the draft, Lane Johnson, with the fourth overall choice. They also grabbed highly-touted QB Matt Barkley in the fourth, who’ll be in the mix at quarterback. The primary story of Philadelphia’s free agency was the release and loss of starting corners Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. As for additions, the team’s best signing was defensive tackle Isaac Sopoaga, who was a beast in San Francisco.

Washington Redskins – The massive RG3 trade (three first-round picks to move up four spots in 2012) affected their draft this year, and the Redskins had a fairly quiet draft weekend, not going with any big names. They’ve been able to resign talented-yet-troubled tight end Fred Davis to a one-year deal, and they’re still in talks with longtime Redskin Chris Cooley.

2013 Storyline

Dallas Cowboys - In 2012, America’s team did not make the playoffs. Again. Starter Tony Romo only has one playoff win in seven years running the Cowboys offense, and the team decided to hand him a tidy $108 million contract. There’s been many questions about the wisdom of owner Jerry Jones also doubling up as the team’s general manager, but unless he fires himself, it’s likely Cowboys fans will continue to see their owner more involved than any other owner in the league. One thing is sure though – this is head coach Jason Garrett’s last year in Dallas if he can’t get the Cowboys to the postseason.

New York Giants – What happened to the 2011 Superbowl Champions? Tom Coughlin’s unstoppable 2011 playoff team disintegrated in the second half of the 2012 season to finish 9-7, and out of the playoffs. New York in recent years have consistently had a strong start to the NFL season before fading in November and December, making it difficult to work their way into the playoffs. Fans will be wanting to see more consistency from Eli Manning and the New York offence in the colder months. An extension for slot receiver Victor Cruz is also on the cards – will he be in the Big Apple for the long term, or just one more season?

Philadelphia Eagles - A very poor season in 2012 was enough to remove 14-year head coach Andy Reid from his perch (pun intended), and new coach Chip Kelly’s first big test has already come and gone: Quarterback Michael Vick agreed to a pay cut, thus granting Kelly both a talented player and a manageable cap figure. There’ll still be a battle for quarterback between Vick, draft pick Matt Barkley and second-year Nick Foles, but regardless of the starter there is a large gap between the Eagles and the rest of the division.

Washington Redskins – There’s another quarterback dilemma in Washington, but due to injury rather than performance. Starter Robert Griffin III tore his ACL late in the season, and is fighting to be ready for Week 1, which would be a near-miraculous recovery. Backup Kirk Cousins should be more than sufficient as a replacement should RG3 end up missing games. If the Redskins can get another stellar performance from running back Alfred Morris and consistent quarterback play, there’s no reason Washington shouldn’t be on top of the standings again in 2013.

Predicted 2013 Standings

• Washington Redskins (11-5)
• Dallas Cowboys (9-7)
• New York Giants (8-8)
• Philadelphia Eagles (5-11)

What do you think? How will the NFC East will look by the end of this season?

10 Must-see NFL Games of 2013 for Australians

With the 2013 draft in the books, fans of the NFL worldwide now face the toughest time of the year – the true offseason of the NFL.

Training camps don’t start until July, preseason isn’t until August, and the season finally kicks off in September, four whole months away!

But there’s always something to talk about, and right now, with six Australians currently on NFL rosters (including three non-punters!) it’s a good chance to bookmark some games that will be worth getting up at 3am, or staying home sick to watch during the day.

Week 1 - Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins

ESPN’s first Monday night primetime game perhaps featuring two Australian punters! Yeah, that’s probably how they’ll advertise this game. Seriously though, will RG3 be all healed up and ready to go? Will new Eagles coach Chip Kelly get started on the right foot?

Week 2 - New York Jets @ New England Patriots

This game might feature Australian punter Alex Dunnachie, and if we’re lucky, another hilarious fumble from Mark Sanchez. Or Geno Smith.

Week 3 - Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs

14-year Eagles head coach Andy Reid was let go this offseason, and found a new home in Kansas City. His old team now visit – what schemes will he have cooked up for Aussie punter Brad Wing?

Week 4 - Seattle Seahawks @ Houston Texans 

Two great teams feature in this early-season game, both sides that were in the playoffs last season and have only gotten better. Australian defensive lineman Jesse Williams might pick up a few tips from the 2012 Defensive player of the year JJ Watt.

Week 5 - San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders

The first Australian-born NFL quarterback, Mike Hermann, enters the Black Hole in a divisional matchup that’s typically hard-fought. Obviously it’s a longshot that he’ll still be on the roster by then, but we can hope.

Week 7 - Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts

Peyton Manning returns to his roots in what is likely to be one of the best quarterbacking displays of 2013. What kind of second-year improvement will Andrew Luck make? I mean, he already took the worst team in football to the playoffs in his first year.

Week 8 - Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

A great NFC-North rivalry matchup, which could see the Vikings enact revenge for their 2012 wild-card loss. I wonder if Adrian Peterson will be over 1,000 yards by this game.

Week 12 - Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants

America’s team faces off against the team that’s been America’s champion twice in the last five years. This game is always good for a Romo interception or fumble in the fourth quarter.

Week 13 - Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

The reigning champion Ravens always face their toughest test against the equally physical Steelers. For fans of ‘old-school’ defensive football, this is the game of the year.

Week 14 - Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

Two very good football teams, and two new generation quarterbacks. These teams will be contenders for the near future in the NFL, and sparks always fly when they match up. Jesse Williams may well be starting for Seattle by this game.

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There you have it, ten regular-season games that are sure to be worth watching. Now, when does Hard Knocks start?

Tebow cut from New York! For me, I believe he’s actually got NFL-calibre skills if someone wanted to go to the effort to tailor an offense around him. Anyone interested in seeing him with the Pats?

Patriots Draft Pick Analysis

Reviewing the tape available on NFL.com for each of the Patriots draft picks, I drew the following conclusions:

1. Jamie Collins: Not a huge frame, room to grow though. Great broad jump. Decent hands, but played it a bit safe (caught against his body). Will be interested to see what pass rush moves he’s got. Is very disciplined.

2. Aaron Dobson: Fights for the ball, good at getting the ball at its highest point and using his body. Not all that fast, but just seems really competitive.

3. Logan Ryan: Good footwork, also good at competing for the ball at the highest point. Maybe not the most gifted athlete. As for hands… watch his final catch in his Combine tape. Good in run support. My personal favourite pick. Does get beaten from quick moves from the line.

4. Josh Boyce: Good acceleration, but not top-end speed. Hands: average. Can turn and change direction quickly. YAC guy.

5. Michael Buchanan: Really just seems pretty average in all areas - not bad or deficient, just average. High-motor guy though.

6. Steve Beauharnais: Not fast, not a gifted athlete. Footwork looked to have good technique. Poor hands. Ok change of direction.

Thoughts on Harmon pick

When the Duron Harmon (Rutgers safety) pick came through in the third round, I thought, here we go again, another non-Combine player that nobody else would’ve drafted that the Patriots pointlessly took ahead of his time.

Yet Belichick’s comments today changed my perspective. Sure, NFL.com’s experts and all the other draftnik’s didn’t have this guy as a high/worthy pick, but nobody knows if this reflects what other NFL teams believed.

Therefore, you can’t really take a player depending on where you thought other teams would take them (if at all), because you simply have no idea, especially in the later rounds.

I guess the Patriots had a third round grade on Harmon, he was available in the third, and they took him. Maybe somebody else had a third or fourth round grade on him, and the Pats stole him away just in time?

It stings a little because it happened just last year with Tavon Wilson, but the overall point is that nobody knows what value all the players have with different teams, so if you can get a guy you like at a position you’re comfortable with, go for it.

Agree?